Seth Lugo
RHP
KC
11
HRs Allowed
9.5%
HR Rate (Pool)
6.5%
Overall HR/FB
2.82
FIP
3.9
xFIP
-1.09
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
0.85
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
6.5%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
9th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
79.4%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
2.82
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
13th pctile
3.9
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
-1.09
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
6th pctile
9.5%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
116
Pool Matchups
11
HRs Allowed (Pool)
2
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
9.5%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 16.7% | 1.5 | 95.0mph | 104.5mph | 24.7° | 391ft | Up +7.2pp |
| Last 15 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 18.5% | 1.67 | 95.7mph | 104.7mph | 26.2° | 388ft | Up +9.0pp |
| Last 30 | 54 | 6 | 8 | 14.8% | 1.33 | 98.9mph | 106.3mph | 27.5° | 397ft | Up +5.3pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
99.5
Avg Max EV
110.9
Max EV Allowed
77
Hard-Hit Proxy · 79.4%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
105.4
Avg HR EV
28.4°
Avg HR Launch
395
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | Brandon Nimmo | 106.6mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Corey Seager | 106.4mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Nicky Lopez | 100.9mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Joc Pederson | 100.2mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Josh Jung | 100.2mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Byron Buxton | 109.6mph | 109.6mph | 23° | 430ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-04 | Ryan Kreidler | 108.3mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Victor Caratini | 102.9mph | 102.2mph | 25° | 364ft | Yes |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | Byron Buxton | #16 | 65 | Target Field | 109.6mph | 23.0° | 430ft |
| 2026-06-04 | Kody Clemens | #62 | 47 | Target Field | 101.7mph | 26.0° | 379ft |
| 2026-06-04 | Victor Caratini | #151 | 17 | Target Field | 102.2mph | 25.0° | 364ft |
| 2026-05-30 | Joc Pederson | #61 | 58 | Globe Life Field | 108.0mph | 19.0° | 367ft |
| 2026-05-30 | Josh Jung | #136 | 45 | Globe Life Field | 102.2mph | 38.0° | 399ft |
| 2026-05-24 | Julio Rodríguez | #118 | 46 | Kauffman Stadium | 106.1mph | 32.0° | 405.0ft |
| 2026-05-18 | Willson Contreras | #80 | 52 | Kauffman Stadium | 110.0mph | 32.0° | 435.0ft |
| 2026-05-13 | Colson Montgomery | #52 | 41 | Rate Field | 110.3mph | 25.0° | 399.0ft |
| 2026-05-07 | Bo Naylor | #116 | 23 | Kauffman Stadium | 101.5mph | 36.0° | 393.0ft |
| 2026-04-26 | Mike Trout | #34 | 66 | Kauffman Stadium | 100.0mph | 32.0° | 381.0ft |
| 2026-03-29 | Drake Baldwin | #25 | 47 | Truist Park | 107.6mph | 24.0° | 396.0ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 274 | 20.5% | -0.1 | 86.4 | 16.1° | 3 |
| Fastball | 230 | 17.2% | +1.9 | 84.7 | 23.3° | 1 |
| Cutter | 196 | 14.6% | +0.3 | 80.1 | 27.9° | 2 |
| Curveball | 193 | 14.4% | +1.0 | 82.0 | -1.0° | 1 |
| Sweeper | 133 | 9.9% | -1.1 | 78.7 | 22.5° | 1 |
| Slider | 128 | 9.6% | -1.2 | 84.7 | 21.6° | 0 |
| Changeup | 111 | 8.3% | -0.4 | 86.6 | 19.1° | 0 |
| Slurve | 42 | 3.1% | +4.2 | 80.8 | 12.2° | 0 |
| Slow Curve | 31 | 2.3% | -0.9 | 69.0 | 35.3° | 0 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
79.4%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | Nicky Lopez | #219 | 22 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Evan Carter | #167 | 34 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Ezequiel Duran | #166 | 34 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Josh Jung | #118 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Wyatt Langford | #112 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Brandon Nimmo | #108 | 45 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Kyle Higashioka | #98 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Joc Pederson | #47 | 58 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Corey Seager | #45 | 58 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Luke Keaschall | #152 | 17 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Victor Caratini | #151 | 17 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | 💥 |
| 2026-06-04 | Austin Martin | #131 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-04 | James Outman | #124 | 31 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Trevor Larnach | #114 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Ryan Kreidler | #90 | 39 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Brooks Lee | #84 | 41 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Kody Clemens | #62 | 47 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-04 | Byron Buxton | #16 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-30 | Alejandro Osuna | #257 | 17 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Michael Helman | #202 | 35 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Danny Jansen | #167 | 41 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Nicky Lopez | #158 | 42 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Josh Jung | #136 | 45 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-30 | Ezequiel Duran | #123 | 47 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Brandon Nimmo | #75 | 56 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Joc Pederson | #61 | 58 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-30 | Jake Burger | #54 | 60 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Cole Young | #239 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Josh Naylor | #238 | 28 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | J.P. Crawford | #210 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Colt Emerson | #194 | 36 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Randy Arozarena | #167 | 39 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Dominic Canzone | #150 | 41 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Mitch Garver | #145 | 42 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Julio Rodríguez | #118 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-24 | Luke Raley | #36 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-18 | Caleb Durbin | #251 | 8 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-18 | Marcelo Mayer | #236 | 20 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-18 | Carlos Narváez | #221 | 26 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-18 | Trevor Story | #220 | 26 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-18 | Jarren Duran | #205 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-18 | Roman Anthony | #200 | 32 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-18 | Ceddanne Rafaela | #159 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-18 | Wilyer Abreu | #117 | 44 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-18 | Willson Contreras | #80 | 52 | 🟠 C | ❄ COLD | 💥 |
| 2026-05-13 | Tristan Peters | #259 | 6 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Luisangel Acuña | #256 | 8 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Edgar Quero | #247 | 13 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Chase Meidroth | #242 | 14 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Andrew Benintendi | #192 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Everson Pereira | #124 | 32 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Miguel Vargas | #74 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Colson Montgomery | #52 | 41 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-13 | Munetaka Murakami | #19 | 52 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-07 | Steven Kwan | #127 | 21 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-07 | Brayan Rocchio | #120 | 22 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-07 | Bo Naylor | #116 | 23 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-07 | Kyle Manzardo | #111 | 25 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-07 | Rhys Hoskins | #93 | 30 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-07 | José Ramírez | #70 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-07 | Chase DeLauter | #64 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-07 | Angel Martínez | #55 | 37 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-07 | Daniel Schneemann | #38 | 40 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Leo Rivas | #127 | 29 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-02 | J.P. Crawford | #122 | 30 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Julio Rodríguez | #108 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Josh Naylor | #95 | 32 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Cole Young | #93 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Randy Arozarena | #92 | 33 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Cal Raleigh | #62 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Luke Raley | #38 | 42 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Dominic Canzone | #23 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Nolan Schanuel | #249 | 24 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Logan O'Hoppe | #228 | 29 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Josh Lowe | #190 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Jo Adell | #184 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Yoán Moncada | #165 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Zach Neto | #162 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Oswald Peraza | #115 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Jorge Soler | #109 | 49 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Mike Trout | #34 | 66 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-20 | Blaze Alexander | #166 | 16 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-20 | Dylan Beavers | #160 | 18 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-20 | Coby Mayo | #156 | 19 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-20 | Taylor Ward | #141 | 26 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-20 | Colton Cowser | #128 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-20 | Pete Alonso | #90 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-20 | Samuel Basallo | #78 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-20 | Jeremiah Jackson | #54 | 49 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-20 | Gunnar Henderson | #39 | 55 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-15 | Gleyber Torres | #133 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-15 | Javier Báez | #127 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-15 | Colt Keith | #124 | 40 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-15 | Zach McKinstry | #120 | 34 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-15 | Jake Rogers | #108 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-15 | Spencer Torkelson | #107 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-15 | Riley Greene | #101 | 50 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-15 | Kerry Carpenter | #92 | 53 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Joey Ortiz | #169 | 23 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Caleb Durbin | #136 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Sal Frelick | #127 | 27 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Isaac Collins | #102 | 33 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Jackson Chourio | #75 | 42 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-04 | William Contreras | #74 | 34 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Rhys Hoskins | #70 | 41 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Brice Turang | #65 | 36 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Christian Yelich | #8 | 43 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Jorge Mateo | #145 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Ozzie Albies | #126 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Dominic Smith | #110 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Mike Yastrzemski | #99 | 42 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Austin Riley | #71 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Michael Harris II | #68 | 41 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Matt Olson | #33 | 51 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Drake Baldwin | #25 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-03-29 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | #9 | 54 | 🟠 C | ❄ COLD | · |